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davemccluredhh のツイ談  

dhh

@davemcclure wouldn't you want to know what the long-term story is for something you'd pay $60B (at $29/share) to buy?

2012-05-30 05:24:03 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

dhh

@davemcclure hell, I care about the long-term story of a $1000 TV

2012-05-30 05:24:33 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

dhh

@davemcclure Also, hardly that contrarian since $16B worth of $FB was bought at $38+ :)

2012-05-30 05:26:41 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

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davemcclure

@dhh i should be more precise: i understand current revenue model & next 2-3 years growth. "long-term" = next revenue model + 5-10 yrs

2012-05-30 05:27:20 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

@dhh exactly, i think the market is pricing in the bad news *way* too much... institutional market was in at $32.

2012-05-30 05:28:04 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

@dhh not sure i would spend $1000 on a TV these days... think we bought ours for $700, and expect it to last 2 yrs b4 we buy another ;)

2012-05-30 05:29:01 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

dhh

@davemcclure You think the current level of revenue/profits and what it'll be in 2-3 yrs justifies a $60B price?! What growth do you expect?

2012-05-30 05:29:34 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

dhh

@davemcclure I can at least sorta understand the caution to the wind buy on the lure of revenue rainbows. But on current numbers?! Madness!

2012-05-30 05:30:25 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

@dhh easily another 300-500M users next 3 yrs, improved monetization from at least 1/2 of those over next 3-5 yrs. $5-8B in rev next yr.

2012-05-30 05:31:50 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

.@dhh prove it. buy the short and show us the screenshot buster ;)

2012-05-30 05:32:23 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

dhh

@davemcclure How many yrs in a row are you forecasting 100% yr/yr revenue growth? Think profit growth will be the same?

2012-05-30 05:33:35 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

@dhh they don't need 100% yr/yr revenue growth, but i'd say at least 50% for next 3 years or better.

2012-05-30 05:34:12 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

@dhh and no, profit growth won't be as good but that doesn't matter until user growth slows down below 20% annual. which won't be 4 awhile.

2012-05-30 05:34:58 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

dhh

@davemcclure Even if they did 3 yrs in a row (fat chance!), they'd still be trading at ~10 p/e. Or about the same as APPLs forward today.

2012-05-30 05:35:47 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

@dhh btw, are u now conceding re: our last 2 "conversations" on this topic i was rational at $10B & $25B market value?

2012-05-30 05:36:15 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

dhh

@GeekAndDad @davemcclure Last I saw a quote on borrowing FB stock for shorting it was at 57% yr rate! Someone doesn't have confidence :)

2012-05-30 05:37:18 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

.@dhh i'd go long FB / short AAPL right now in a fucking heartbeat. Jobs is dead and Zuck is 27. i *do* know the long-term story there.

2012-05-30 05:37:21 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

RT @dhh: @davemcclure Even if they did 3 yrs in a row (fat chance!), they'd still be trading at ~10 p/e. Or about the same as APPLs forward today.

2012-05-30 05:37:38 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

@dhh like i said, buy the short & show us the screenshot. until then, we're just shooting the shit ;)

2012-05-30 05:38:23 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

dhh

@davemcclure Intrinsic value rational? Fuck no. I def would not pay $25B for FB today. But sure, if they, say triple income, then OK.

2012-05-30 05:39:31 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

dhh

@davemcclure a) Markets can stay irrational for a long time (see early takers on housing bust and their losses), b) short rate is nuts now.

2012-05-30 05:41:52 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

dhh

@davemcclure Jobs left a legacy of hit products any two-bit CEO could ride high on for a decade+. And they have a 64-bit one running it!

2012-05-30 05:43:05 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

@dhh fair enough. but we'll see floor tomorrow at $25-27 worst case, might have hit it today now at $28.50 -- time 2 fucking BUY.

2012-05-30 05:44:12 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

RT @NickPinkston: @davemcclure @dhh It ain't real 'til it's in written in naked puts guys ;-)

2012-05-30 05:44:23 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

@dhh he can run it at 10 p/e for 2 fucking decades, but only Zuck can run it for 3 years at 50-100x

2012-05-30 05:45:17 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

dhh

@davemcclure I think fair value is ~$7. Would need a bit of Graham safety margin to make it a buy. So at $5 I could muster interest :)

2012-05-30 05:48:22 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

market closed, FB @ $28.8 -- bears r fucking idiots. best time 2 buy FB since 3-4 yrs ago when it was $3-5B on 2ndry. wake up muppets. @dhh

2012-05-30 05:48:55 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

RT @dhh: @davemcclure I think fair value is ~$7. Would need a bit of Graham safety margin to make it a buy. So at $5 I could muster interest :)

2012-05-30 05:49:08 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

@dhh BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!! seriously dude, u make me laugh more than Chris Rock or @KATTPACKALLDAY :) tell me another 1.

2012-05-30 05:50:08 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

RT @rohit_x_: .@dhh @davemcclure plug in growth you forecast in the FT model http://t.co/Kh9TjKt1 and see what's fair - i am a buyer at 22-24

2012-05-30 05:52:10 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

alright, that was fun @dhh -- let's do this again next year @ our annual check-in. i'm betting FB $40 or higher. care to make a prediction?

2012-05-30 05:54:38 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

dhh

@davemcclure I don't think the market is going to wise up in one year. Just look at $CRM. Zombie valuation year after year.

2012-05-30 05:56:17 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

dhh

@davemcclure But I'll still guess $20 just to pull a number out of my ass (since numbers from reality doesn't seem to matter much :))

2012-05-30 05:57:36 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

RT @dhh: @davemcclure But I'll still guess $20 just to pull a number out of my ass (since numbers from reality doesn't seem to matter much :))

2012-05-30 05:58:17 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

.@dhh okay done! i say $40, u say $20. let's check market close on 05/29/13, and u owe me a beer if it's above $30; i owe u one below.

2012-05-30 05:59:47 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

RT @brandwinn: @davemcclure No contest. @dhh is going to win.

2012-05-30 06:01:22 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

@anildash umm... ok, pls do explain "a rationally calculated value of worth" -- i'm listening. cc @dhh

2012-05-30 06:02:20 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

@brandwinn let's check tale of the tape next year. regardless, we'll be drinking :) @dhh

2012-05-30 06:04:36 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

dhh

@anildash @davemcclure Anil, I'm going off profit models! If all that mattered was juicing revenues, $GRPN should be soaring, not tanking :)

2012-05-30 06:06:18 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

RT @andyellwood: @cdixon Where do you fall on the @dhh and @davemcclure debate. +/- $30 for $FB a year from today.

2012-05-30 06:42:27 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

RT @dpinsen: .@davemcclure @dhh The steep cost of hedging $FB now suggests that @dhh has a free beer in his future: http://t.co/NEngAkcl

2012-05-30 08:10:43 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

davemcclure

@dpinsen regardless, beers in a year. cc @dhh

2012-05-30 08:11:08 - 返信元ツイートを取得する

 

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